The ubiquitous smartphone, an undeniably central device in modern life, faces an uncertain future according to Jon Callaghan, co-founder of True Ventures. He suggests that within five years, humanity's interaction with these devices will be significantly altered, potentially leading to their complete abandonment within a decade. This isn't a casual observation but a strategic thesis supported by two decades of successful early-stage investing, which has propelled companies like Fitbit, Ring, and Peloton to immense valuations. True Ventures is actively preparing for this shift by investing in novel interfaces, such as Sandbar, a voice-activated ring designed as a 'thought companion' rather than merely another computing gadget.
Callaghan has candidly expressed his conviction, stating in a recent interview, "The prevalent use of iPhones will diminish significantly, perhaps within five years, and potentially vanish within a decade." This perspective is not merely speculative; True Ventures is committing substantial capital to this vision. For a firm overseeing approximately $6 billion across various funds, such a pronouncement carries considerable weight. Over the past twenty years, True has consistently identified and supported what initially appeared to be unconventional hardware ventures. This includes backing Fitbit when wearables were still a niche, investing in Peloton after numerous other venture capitalists had declined, and supporting Ring's founder Jamie Siminoff during a period of severe financial difficulty. The firm proudly reports 63 successful exits and seven initial public offerings from its diverse portfolio of around 300 companies, underscoring its credibility in forecasting technological shifts.
His core argument is straightforward: current smartphones are inefficient for mediating human interaction with artificial intelligence. He explains that the act of retrieving a phone for basic tasks like sending texts or emails is "super inefficient, and not a great interface." These devices are prone to errors and can disrupt daily routines. As AI becomes an increasingly integral layer of human interaction, the traditional touchscreen interface feels increasingly antiquated.
True Ventures has been discreetly exploring alternative interaction methods, spanning both software and hardware. Their latest significant investment is in Sandbar, a startup developing what Callaghan describes as a "thought companion": a voice-activated ring worn on the index finger that captures and organizes thoughts through voice notes. This device is not designed to compete with existing AI companions or health-monitoring rings. "It excels at a singular function," Callaghan notes, "but that one thing addresses a core human behavioral requirement currently unfulfilled by technology."
What primarily attracted True to Sandbar founders Mina Fahmi and Kirak Hong (both previously involved in neural interfaces at CTRL-Labs, a Meta-acquired startup) was not solely the innovative gadget, but the behavioral transformation it enabled. Callaghan recalls, "When we met Mina, we shared a complete alignment of vision." He emphasizes that the true value lies in "what the ring enables," particularly the new behaviors "we will very soon realize we can't live without." This forms the bedrock of True's investment success: it's never about the specific device, but the fundamental human behaviors that new technology unlocks.
Empirical evidence supports Callaghan's perspective. The global smartphone market is largely saturated, experiencing minimal annual growth of barely 2%. In stark contrast, the wearables sector—encompassing smartwatches, rings, and voice-enabled devices—is expanding at double-digit rates. This discrepancy clearly indicates a fundamental shift in how people desire to interact with technology.
Callaghan's cautious approach extends to the broader AI proliferation. While he believes OpenAI could eventually achieve a trillion-dollar valuation and considers this the "most impactful computational transformation observed," he expresses concern regarding the intertwined funding arrangements backing large-scale cloud providers and their projected $5 trillion in data center and chip expenditures. "We're in a highly capital-intensive phase of the economic cycle, and that is worrisome," he states. However, his skepticism doesn't extend to AI itself, but rather to where genuine value generation will occur. His conviction is that value will emerge not from infrastructure, but from the application layer, where novel interfaces unlock entirely new human behaviors.
This considered investment philosophy also clarifies why True Ventures maintains fiscal discipline. While many AI startups are securing colossal funding rounds with instantaneous billion-dollar valuations, True provides seed funding ranging from $3 million to $6 million for a 15-20% equity stake. "What is the rationale for raising billions?" Callaghan asks. "Such massive capital isn't requisite for creating innovative solutions now." This approach has proven successful for twenty years and appears increasingly unconventional amid widespread large funding rounds and periods of intense speculation. True prefers to identify the next major innovation early rather than pursue potentially overvalued AI investments. The core investment thesis is simple: find founders deeply committed to solving problems people haven't recognized, then provide support without interference.
Callaghan's prediction regarding smartphone obsolescence is more than a typical venture capitalist's trendy opinion; it's backed by a twenty-year history of successfully investing in interface transformations that initially seemed unconventional. True Ventures anticipated the rise of smartphones during the desktop computing era and has consistently demonstrated accurate foresight regarding hardware advancements ever since. Whether it involves wearables or AI-powered rings capturing voice thoughts, the pattern persists: novel human interactions appear, new gadgets facilitate them, and previous methods of technological engagement recede. The smartphone market's stagnant 2% growth, contrasted with double-digit wearables expansion, indicates a fundamental shift in market dynamics. True Ventures is betting that the next five to ten years will look radically different, and given their portfolio's track record, their insights warrant close observation.
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